How Does Spring Phenology Respond to Climate Change in Ecologically Fragile Grassland? A Case Study from the Northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

Vegetation phenology is an important indicator of global climate change, and the response of grassland phenology to climate change is particularly sensitive in ecologically fragile areas. To enhance the ecological security of the Tibetan Plateau, it is crucial to determine the relationship between fluctuations in the start of the growing season (SOS) and the response to environmental factors. We investigated the trends of the intra-annual (ten-day) and interannual spatiotemporal dynamics of the SOS on the Northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (NQTP) from 2000–2020 with MOD09GA data. We identified the response relationships with environmental factors (climate, terrain) using the maximum value composite method and the Savitzky–Golay filtering and dynamic threshold method. The SOS was concentrated from the 110th to 150th days; the average annual SOS was on the 128th day, with a spatial pattern of “early in the east and late in the west”. The overall trend of the SOS was advanced (45.48%); the regions with the advanced trend were mainly distributed in the eastern part of the NQTP. The regions with a delayed SOS were mainly concentrated in the higher-altitude regions in the southwest (38.31%). The temperature, precipitation and SOS exhibited a reverse fluctuation trend around the midpoint of 2010. Precipitation affected the SOS earlier than temperature. When temperature became a limitation of the SOS, precipitation had a more significant regulatory effect on the SOS. The SOS and aspect, slope and altitude were distributed in axisymmetric, pyramidal and inverted pyramidal shapes, respectively. The SOS on shaded slopes was earlier and more intensive than that on sunny slopes. With increasing slope, the area of the SOS decreased, and it occurred later. The SOS area was largest at 4500–5000 m and decreased at lower and higher altitude intervals. The SOS occurred later as altitude increased.