Understanding the Spread of COVID-19 Based on Economic and Socio-Political Factors

Abstract

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, one of the main focuses worldwide has been to collect data on cases and deaths in the widest collaborative innovation to better understand the epidemic spread and keep its evolution under control. Under an “Open Innovation in Science” approach, researchers can contribute to producing new scientific knowledge on the features and, thus, the evolution of the epidemic, by which policymakers can have the tools to adopt optimal containment measures in order to maximize the economic growth and minimize the social impact. Little focus was given to identifying economic and socio-political factors that could drive the spreading of the coronavirus. In its initial stages, the spread of the virus seemed to follow specific paths without a clear explanation. The study aimed to analyze the relationships between mathematical factors obtained from the curves characterizing the COVID-19 spread during its first wave and economic and socio-political factors of the considered countries with an exploratory approach based on data available from different sources. The intent was to identify the elements affecting the contagion and, thus, the COVID-19 cases. Twenty factors for specific countries were selected. In MATLAB environment, a homemade software was used to obtain the mathematical factors, and statistical software was used to identify the potential correlations existing between the mathematical parameters and the economic and socio-political factors. Interesting relationships were found with economic factors such as economic growth forecast and health spending as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), just to cite a few, with the spread of the epidemic. This study shows that a better understanding of the link between the epidemic and the economic and socio-political factors of human society can be the key to forecast more accurately the evolution of the pandemic, and even to predict the progress of future insurgencies. Vulnerabilities and weaknesses of our societies could also have the opportunity to be addressed with the ultimate goal of improving the economic, social, and environmental sustainability of human society.