An Innovative Simulation Agent-Based Model for the Combined Sea-Road Transport as a DSS

Abstract

This research proposes an innovative approach to evaluate modal shift from the road-only to the combined sea-road transport in order to implement new policies and introduce a Decision Support System (DSS) for the transportation planner’s decision. The impact of these is carried out by using an innovative simulation tool which has the capability to simulate the real choice process of all stakeholders involved, specifically modelling the freight forwarder’s point of view. The model runs as a single-agent based simulation which uses a multimodal network with detailed zoning. The simulation tool, capable of simulating the assignment of the whole network simultaneously, consists of a path choice model and a mode choice model for each o/d pair considered, establishing o/d pairs suitable and not suitable for modal shift. Three policies have been designed and tested through the simulation tool with an application in the Italian context: (1) internalization of the external costs of heavy vehicles; (2) introduction of a bonus for shipping companies; (3) design of new Ro-Ro services. The most affecting policy concerns an increase of speed of some Ro-Ro services to 22 kn, proposing a good balance between the navigation costs and the potential demand attracted.