Potential Impact of Climate Change Analysis on the Management of Water Resources under Stressed Quantity and Quality Scenarios

Author:

Tercini João Rafael BergamaschiORCID,Perez Raphael FerreiraORCID,Schardong André,Bonnecarrère Joaquin Ignacio Garcia

Abstract

Assuring access to high-quality water for its multiple uses is increasingly difficult and relevant, as climate changes are gradually altering the hydrologic cycle and impacting traditional and well-established techniques of water resource management. This manuscript proposes a methodology to assess the impact of climatic variability in pre-established management rules, using spatially interpolated rain gauged data for two future emission scenarios. With them, water allocation and water quality parameters are simulated for the Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiaí watersheds (PCJ watersheds) in São Paulo, Brazil, employing comparisons among scenarios of historical and climate modified hydrological series. Five selected water quality indicators are used to confirm that the introduction of climate variation signals worsens water quality parameters, along with a decrease in the capability to meet water demand. This finding suggests the importance of including climate change impact in similar studies in management plans. The results indicate higher stress levels on the watershed when changes in the hydrological regime are introduced by the future conditions modeled and driven by the regional climate model (RCM). Water availability decreases and water quality deteriorates, indicating that stakeholders must take action to progressively implement stricter control measures to achieve the goals established by the watershed master plan regarding the limits or classification set by the body governing the watershed in question. On average, there was an increase of about four times the amount of river stretches (in kilometres), from 29.6 km to 161.9 km outside the limits of the established framework. The average was taken for all parameters as presented in the discussion.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3