Hydrological Modeling based on Weather Forecasting for Effective Water Resource Management in the Piracicaba River Basin, Brazil

Abstract

Abstract The occurrence of increasingly recent water scarcity phenomena, coupled with growing demands for water, culminates in complex rules for reservoir operation and compliance with minimum standards for the population. This work details the exploration of hydrological modeling techniques to support decision-making in water resource management, taking as a case study the Piracicaba River Basin, which are served by the Cantareira System and make significant contributions to the development of the state of São Paulo. By using a coupled rainfall-runoff and routing model, the necessary releases were estimated for two reservoirs that serve the region to meet the minimum outflows required at two downstream control sections, one in Atibaia and another in Valinhos. Based on seven-day weather forecast data, the operations were calculated over a two-year simulation period. The results obtained demonstrated compliance with the predicted demands, with a reduction of up to 72% compared to the actual discharged volumes during the same period. Despite inherent simplifications in the modeling process, it was concluded that the model provides accurate results based on precise techniques and can offer information that complements the sustainable management of water resources.