Forecasting Economic Growth of the Group of Seven via Fractional-Order Gradient Descent Approach

Abstract

This paper establishes a model of economic growth for all the G7 countries from 1973 to 2016, in which the gross domestic product (GDP) is related to land area, arable land, population, school attendance, gross capital formation, exports of goods and services, general government, final consumer spending and broad money. The fractional-order gradient descent and integer-order gradient descent are used to estimate the model parameters to fit the GDP and forecast GDP from 2017 to 2019. The results show that the convergence rate of the fractional-order gradient descent is faster and has a better fitting accuracy and prediction effect.