Regional Economic Forecasting Method Based on Recurrent Neural Network

Abstract

Macroeconomic situation is the overall performance of the economic situation of a country and region. Making accurate forecasts of macroeconomic trends is of great significance for analyzing the success or failure of macroeconomic control policies, evaluating the quality of economic system operation, and correctly formulating future development planning strategies. The macroeconomic system is a nonlinear system, the environment is constantly changing, and additional disturbing factors directly affect the operation of the macroeconomic system, which has a great impact on the forecast results. The historical information required for macroeconomic modeling is unstable, unclear, and incomplete, which makes it very difficult to solve such problems with traditional forecasting methods. In response to the multivariate and nonlinear characteristics of macroeconomic forecasting, this paper proposes the application of artificial neural networks for forecasting. This paper introduces the recurrent neural network into the field of economic forecasting to solve the problems of the traditional BP (back propagation) neural network method. The experimental data are verified and the experimental results prove that the studied scheme based PSO-GRU improve the performance of economic forecasting.