Predicting Adult Hospital Admission from Emergency Department Using Machine Learning: An Inclusive Gradient Boosting Model

Abstract

Background and aim: We analyzed an inclusive gradient boosting model to predict hospital admission from the emergency department (ED) at different time points. We compared its results to multiple models built exclusively at each time point. Methods: This retrospective multisite study utilized ED data from the Mount Sinai Health System, NY, during 2015–2019. Data included tabular clinical features and free-text triage notes represented using bag-of-words. A full gradient boosting model, trained on data available at different time points (30, 60, 90, 120, and 150 min), was compared to single models trained exclusively at data available at each time point. This was conducted by concatenating the rows of data available at each time point to one data matrix for the full model, where each row is considered a separate case. Results: The cohort included 1,043,345 ED visits. The full model showed comparable results to the single models at all time points (AUCs 0.84–0.88 for different time points for both the full and single models). Conclusion: A full model trained on data concatenated from different time points showed similar results to single models trained at each time point. An ML-based prediction model can use used for identifying hospital admission.