Comparison of Traffic Flow Models with Real Traffic Data Based on a Quantitative Assessment

Abstract

The fundamental relationship of traffic flow and bivariate relations between speed and flow, speed and density, and flow and density are of great importance in transportation engineering. Fundamental relationship models may be applied to assess and forecast traffic conditions at uninterrupted traffic flow facilities. The objective of the article was to analyze and compare existing models of the fundamental relationship. To that end, we proposed a universal and quantitative method for assessing models of the fundamental relationship based on real traffic data from a Polish expressway. The proposed methodology seeks to address the problem of finding the best deterministic model to describe the empirical relationship between fundamental traffic flow parameters: average speed, flow, and density based on simple and transparent criteria. Both single and multi-regime models were considered: a total of 17 models. For the given data, the results helped to identify the best performing models that meet the boundary conditions and ensure simplicity, empirical accuracy, and good estimation of traffic flow parameters.