Changes in CO2 Soil Degassing Style as a Possible Precursor to Volcanic Activity: The 2019 Case of Stromboli Paroxysmal Eruptions

Abstract

Paroxysmal explosions are some of the most spectacular evidence of volcanism on Earth and are triggered by the rapid ascent of volatile-rich magma. These explosions often occur in persistently erupting basaltic volcanoes located in subduction zones and represent a major hazard due to the sudden occurrence and wide impact on the neighboring populations. However, the recognition of signals that forecast these blasts remains challenging even in the best-monitored volcanoes. Here, we present the results of the regular monitoring of soil CO2 flux from a fumarole field at the summit of Stromboli (Italy), highlighting that the 2016–2019 period was characterized by two important phases of strong increases of volatile output rate degassing (24 g m2 d−2 and 32 g m2 d−2, respectively) and moreover by significant changes in the degassing style few months before the last paroxysmal explosions occurred in the summer 2019 (3 July and 28 August). Establish that the deep portions of a volcano plumbing system are refilled by new volatiles-rich magma intruding from the mantle is therefore a key factor for forecasting eruptions and helping in recognizing possible precursors of paroxysmal explosions and could be highlighted by the monitoring of soil CO2 flux. The abrupt increase of degassing rate coupled with the strong increase of fluctuating signal (daily natural deviation) recorded during 2019 at Stromboli could be the key to predicting the occurrence of paroxysmal events.