A Predictive Reliability Model to Assess the Performance of Photovoltaic Systems

Abstract

Clean energy is extremely important not only because of economic purposes but also for health considerations. The use of photovoltaic (PV) systems is growing, with the increased needs for electricity. This requires more attention to research of PV systems. In this study, a method to predict the expected lifetime based on the reliability of system performance is proposed. Geographical data were collected near two different locations: Cairo, Egypt and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The PV system was simulated with inputs from collected data to obtain the device factors and system responses. To study the significance of inputs and device parameters on the system responses, the Taguchi OA method was used. The probability density function (pdf) of the time of acceptable performance was estimated from the simulation data. A reliability analysis method was applied to the obtained pdf to estimate the reliability function, lifetime or mean life, reliable life, and rate of failure of the used PV system as assessment factors. The results showed that the system efficiency is highly dependent on the ambient temperature, while the performance ratio depends on many variables. The reliability analysis revealed that the field orientation of 30° tilt and 20° azimuth and of 30° tilt and 30° azimuth are best for near Cairo and near Riyadh, respectively. These orientations lead to the longest mean life of 772.25 and 688.36 months for Cairo and Riyadh, respectively. It also resulted in the lowest failure rates of 0.001295 and 0.001228 per month for both regions.