Impact Assessment of Flood Damage in Urban Areas Using RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios and Building Inventory

Abstract

Korea has frequent flood damage due to localized torrential rain and typhoons as a result of climate change, which causes many casualties and property damage. In particular, much damage occurs due to urban inundation caused by stream flooding as a result of climate change. Thus, this study aims to analyze the effect of climate change on flood damage targeting the Wonjucheon basin, which is an urban stream flowing the city. For future rainfall data, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 8.5 climate change scenario data was used, statistical detailed using SDQDM (Spatial Disaggregation with Quantile Delta Mapping) techniques, and daily data was downscaled using Copula model. In general, the flood damage rate is calculated by using the area ratio according to the land use in the administrative district, but in this study, the flood damage rate is calculated using the flood damage rate proposed in the multi-dimensional flood damage analysis using Building Inventory. Using the created future rainfall data and current data, the runoff in the Wonjucheon basin, Wonju-si, South Korea, by rainfall frequency was calculated through the Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool (S-RAT) model, which was a distributed rainfall-runoff model. The runoff was calculated using 100-year and 200-year frequency rainfalls for a four-hour duration and the flood damage area was calculated by applying the calculated runoff to the Flo-2D model, was developed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in United State of America, which was a flood inundation model. As a result of calculating the amount of discharge, it was analyzed that the average amount of discharge increased by 16% over the 100-year, 200-year frequency. The calculated result of the flood damage area was analyzed and the analysis results showed that the future flood damage area increased by around 30% at the 100-year frequency and around 15% at the 200-year frequency. The estimated flood damage by rainfall frequency was calculated using the flood damage area by frequency and multi-dimensional analysis, and the analysis result exhibited that the damage increased by around 23% at the 100-year frequency and around 45% at the 200-year frequency.