Author:
Pang Nan,Jia Peng,Liu Peilin,Yin Feng,Zhou Lei,Wang Liquan,Yun Feihong,Wang Xiangyu
Abstract
In production environments, failure data of a complex system are difficult to obtain due to the high cost of experiments; furthermore, using a single model to analyze risk, reliability, availability and uncertainty is a big challenge. Based on the fault tree, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Markov method, this paper proposed a fuzzy Markov method that takes the full advantages of the three methods and makes the analysis of risk, reliability, availability and uncertainty all in one. This method uses the fault tree and fuzzy theory to preprocess the input failure data to improve the reliability of the input failure data, and then input the preprocessed failure data into the Markov model; after that iterate and adjust the model when uncertainty events occur, until the data of all events have been processed by the model and the updated model obtained, which best reflects the system state. The wellhead connector of a subsea production system was used as a case study to demonstrate the above method. The obtained reliability index (mean time to failure) of the connector is basically consistent with the failure statistical data from the offshore and onshore reliability database, which verified the accuracy of the proposed method.
Funder
National Key Research and Development Program of China
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Subject
Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes,Computer Science Applications,Process Chemistry and Technology,General Engineering,Instrumentation,General Materials Science
Cited by
14 articles.
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