Reliability Analysis of the Deep-Sea Horizontal Clamp Connector Based on Multi-Source Information from an Engineering Background

Abstract

As a key piece of equipment in underwater production system, a reliability study of deep-sea connectors has important theoretical significance and engineering value for increasing fault-free operation time, improving engineering safety, and reducing maintenance costs. However, the diverse failure modes of connectors and the lack of high-quality and credible reliability data can lead to biased analysis outcomes. To tackle this problem, this study aims to establish a reliability model for deep-sea horizontal clamp connectors. Based on the actual engineering background, a fault tree model for deep-sea horizontal clamp connectors is developed, and the distribution types of bottom events are analyzed concerning the failure mechanism. To enhance the model’s credibility, a multi-source information approach is employed, combining prior product information, expert experience, and design information to quantitatively solve the reliability probability of the connector. The expert experience is quantified using the fuzzy quantitative analysis method, while the design information is estimated by developing a corrosion prediction model combined with grey theory. Thus, the reliability assessment of deep-sea horizontal clamp connectors is completed. Factory Acceptance Test (FAT) is performed on the improved connectors, and the closed-loop work of reliability analysis is completed.