Discontinuities in Wintertime Warming in Northern Europe during 1951–2016

Abstract

Although there is a general consensus about the trends of current climate change, the North Atlantic region deserves special attention, as it is the key region for many climate processes. The aim of this study is to assess the climatic changes in this region for the period 1951–2016, based on the analysis of surface air temperature (SAT) observations from weather stations, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Statistical modeling of time series for January, February and March shows a stepwise increase of SAT in Northern Europe in 1987–1989, with the stationarity increasing towards spring. The divided trends of the NAO and SAT indicate a good coherence at the level of climate tendencies. This research reveals the discontinuity of the present-day wintertime warming in Northern Europe, with a warming of about 2 °C after the stepwise jump of the SAT.