Hyperbolic Secant Subsidence Prediction Model under Thick Loose Layer Mining Area

Abstract

In China, as a major resource, coal has made great contributions to national energy security and social development. The mining of coal resources can cause surface subsidence damage, and in particular, the mining of coal resources in thick loose layer mines is the most serious. How to accurately predict the surface subsidence caused by coal mining in thick loose layer mines has become an urgent problem to be solved. To solve this problem, numerical simulations based on the measured data were used to reveal that the thickness of the loose layer is the intrinsic mechanism that affects the value of the surface subsidence and the large range of subsidence. On this basis, the hyperbolic secant function is used as the influence function of unit mining to derive the expected model of subsidence under thick loose layer conditions: the hyperbolic secant subsidence prediction model. Compared with the probability integral method, the hyperbolic secant subsidence prediction model’s prediction accuracy RMSE value is improved by 38%. The hyperbolic secant subsidence prediction model can realize accurate estimation of the subsidence value in the thick loose layer mine area. This greatly enriches the mining subsidence prediction theory and provides a scientific basis for the assessment of surface damage and ecological environment restoration after coal seam mining under a thick loose seam mining area.