Analysis of the Spatial–Temporal Pattern of the Newly Increased Cultivated Land and Its Vulnerability in Northeast China

Abstract

Ensuring compliance with China’s “1.8 billion mu” (120 million hectares) cultivated land preservation policy is a fundamental goal of land policy. Northeast China has experienced significant cultivated land expansion due to rigorous compensation policies over the past two decades, resulting in sustainable increases in grain output. This research employs remote sensing data to examine the spatial–temporal pattern and vulnerability of newly increased cultivated land expansion in Northeast China and its potential impact on food security. Results indicate a 3.08% increase in newly increased cultivated land from 2000 to 2020, with the majority located in the Sanjiang Plain’s humid area and Inner Mongolia’s arid and semi-arid regions. The low quality of newly added cultivated land makes it highly vulnerable. Temperature instability significantly and negatively correlates with cultivated land expansion. The vulnerability of cultivated land is negatively and significantly related to grain yield, suggesting an adverse impact on national food security. This study focuses on the marginal impact of newly increased cultivated land and proposes policy recommendations.