Comparison of Causality of Temperature and Precipitation on Italian Ryegrass (Lolium Multiflorum Lam.) Yield between Cultivation Fields via Multi-Group Structural Equation Model Analysis in the Republic of Korea

Abstract

This study aimed to compare the causality of climatic factors affecting the yield of Italian ryegrass (IRG) between upland fields and paddy fields, by multi-group structure equation modeling. The raw data (n = 728) on forage contains both yield, field type, and the plantation address were collected from the Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea. The climatic factors were: growing days, temperature and precipitation-in autumn and next spring seasons-from the climate big data of the weather information system of Korean Meteorology Administration. In the result, the composition of climatic factors was similar, but the causality by the paths was different between upland fields and paddy fields. In particular, yield in the paddy fields was sensitive to autumn precipitation because of short growing days in the rice-rotation system. In the paddy fields, the precipitation effect in both autumn and the next spring indirectly affected the yield through temperature. The autumn temperature effect on yield in the paddy fields was 2.82 times greater than in the upland fields, between the two field types, the spring temperature effect was somewhat similar after wintering; thus, IRG cultivation in paddy fields should be limited to the south. However, there is greater suitability for IRG in the upland fields in the autumn, where the benefits of higher temperatures accumulate to offset effectively the short growing days. This study will assist in checking areas suitable for IRG cultivation as a winter forage crop in the Republic of Korea. In the future, the structure established in this study will be expanded by adding variables related to soil physical properties from soil information system and cultivation management from survey sheets.