Temporal Sensitivity Analysis of the MONICA Model: Application of Two Global Approaches to Analyze the Dynamics of Parameter Sensitivity

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is often applied to evaluate the behavior of ecological models in which the integrated soil and crop processes often vary over time. In this study, the time dependence of the parameter sensitivity of a process-based agro-ecosystem model was analyzed for various sites and model outputs. We applied the Morris screening and extended FAST methods by calculating daily sensitivity measures. By analyzing the daily elementary effects using the Morris method, we were able to identify more sensitive parameters compared with the original approach. The temporal extension of the extended FAST method revealed changes in parameter sensitivity during the simulation time. In addition to the dynamic parameter sensitivity, we noticed different relationships between parameter sensitivity and simulation time. The temporal SA performed in this study improves our understanding of the investigated model’s behavior and demonstrates the importance of analyzing the sensitivity of ecological models over the entire simulation time.