Long-Term Trends of Global Wine Market

Abstract

The major factors of wine trade have been showing distinct patterns of temporal trends worldwide in past decades. Wine consumption, production, imports, and exports differ according to their location and classification to Old World and New World wine markets. Using datasets from various sources, this work focused on quantifying long-term trends (1995–2021) of these wine industry factors for each country, including long-term means and temporal trends, using the Mann-Kendall trend test, and resulting in Z-scores. The temporal relationships between these global factors were quantified by applying Pearson correlation to the original values, as well as by correlating the Z-scores. Our findings show that Old World wine consumers and producers (e.g., Spain, France, and Italy) have been experiencing gradual decreasing trends of wine consumption and production. In New World countries, some of the largest wine-consuming countries were found to have strong, significant increases in wine consumption and new wine production markets show rapid growth trends. About 80% of the countries demonstrated increasing trends of wine imports, signifying the impact of globalization on the wine market and the growing demand for foreign wine. Globally, consumption per capita was found to have significantly decreased. Wine production showed a strong, significant, and lagged dependence on wine consumption, which was also related to the temporal trends of wine imports and exports. The major forces driving the wine market are possibly economic growth and wider competition, with climate change acting as a disruptive force.