An Efficient Feature Augmentation and LSTM-Based Method to Predict Maritime Traffic Conditions

Abstract

The recent emergence of futuristic ships is the result of advances in information and communication technology, big data, and artificial intelligence. They are generally autonomous, which has the potential to significantly improve safety and drastically reduce operating costs. However, the commercialization of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships requires the development of appropriate technologies, including intelligent navigation systems, which involves the identification of the current maritime traffic conditions and the prediction of future maritime traffic conditions. This study aims to develop an algorithm that predicts future maritime traffic conditions using historical data, with the goal of enhancing the performance of autonomous ships. Using several datasets, we trained and validated an artificial intelligence model using long short-term memory and evaluated the performance by considering several features such as the maritime traffic volume, maritime traffic congestion fluctuation range, fluctuation rate, etc. The algorithm was able to identify features for predicting maritime traffic conditions. The obtained results indicated that the highest performance of the model with a valid loss of 0.0835 was observed under the scenario with all trends and predictions. The maximum values for 3, 6, 12, and 24 days and the congestion of the gate lines around the analysis point showed a significant effect on performance. The results of this study can be used to improve the performance of situation recognition systems in autonomous ships and can be applied to maritime traffic condition recognition technology for coastal ships that navigate more complex sea routes compared to ships navigating the ocean.