Pluvial Flood Susceptibility in the Local Community of the City of Gospić (Croatia)

Abstract

Pluvial flooding (PF), resulting from intense short-duration rainfall events, is challenging in urban areas amidst climate change and rapid urbanization. Identifying flood-prone zones and implementing collaborative mitigation strategies with the local population are crucial aspects of PF management. This study aims to enhance the understanding of urban PF in Croatia by collecting historical PF data, creating the GIS-MCDA susceptibility model, and conducting a risk perception survey for the study area of Gospić. Susceptibility zones were generated utilizing topographical, environmental, and hydrological criteria using the AHP method. To examine the risk perception, a face-to-face survey was conducted among 5% of the city’s population (N = 64). Five factors were defined: (F1) risk awareness, (F2) anthropogenic and (F3) natural causes of PF, (F4) potential consequences, and (F5) preparedness. The reliability of the questionnaire was very high (>0.71). Most respondents believe they are ill-equipped to defend against flooding independently and express a lack of confidence in the measures taken by local authorities. The highly susceptible zones encompass not only agricultural areas but also residential zones of city. Among all respondents, 36% live in a flood-prone area and half of them have no flood insurance or other mitigation measures. Incorporating locals’ suggestions and problems, mitigation measures were proposed. Results from this research can be a starting point for further research in Croatia and can provide guidelines for decision-makers in implementing a risk mitigation strategy.