GIS-Based Integrated Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment in Makedonska Kamenica Municipality, North Macedonia

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of natural hazard susceptibility in the Makedonska Kamenica municipality of North Macedonia, encompassing erosion assessment, landslides, flash floods, and forest fire vulnerability. Employing advanced GIS and remote sensing (RS) methodologies, hazard models were meticulously developed and integrated to discern areas facing concurrent vulnerabilities. Findings unveil substantial vulnerabilities prevalent across the area, notably along steep terrain gradients, river valleys, and deforested landscapes. Erosion assessment reveals elevated rates, with a mean erosion coefficient (Z) of 0.61 and an annual erosion production of 182,712.9 m3, equivalent to a specific erosion rate of 961.6 m3/km2/year. Landslide susceptibility analysis identifies 31.8% of the municipality exhibiting a very high probability of landslides, while flash flood susceptibility models depict 3.3% of the area prone to very high flash flood potential. Forest fire susceptibility mapping emphasizes slightly less than one-third of the municipality’s forested area is highly or very highly susceptible to fires. Integration of these hazard models elucidates multi-hazard zones, revealing that 11.0% of the municipality’s territory faces concurrent vulnerabilities from excessive erosion, landslides, flash floods, and forest fires. These zones are predominantly located in upstream areas, valleys of river tributaries, and the estuary region. The identification of multi-hazard zones underscores the critical need for targeted preventive measures and robust land management strategies to mitigate potential disasters and safeguard both human infrastructure and natural ecosystems. Recommendations include the implementation of enhanced monitoring systems, validation methodologies, and community engagement initiatives to bolster hazard preparedness and response capabilities effectively.