Prediction Models for Evaluating Resilient Modulus of Stabilized Aggregate Bases in Wet and Dry Alternating Environments: ANN and GEP Approaches

Abstract

Stabilized aggregate bases are vital for the long-term service life of pavements. Their stiffness is comparatively higher; therefore, the inclusion of stabilized materials in the construction of bases prevents the cracking of the asphalt layer. The effect of wet–dry cycles (WDCs) on the resilient modulus (Mr) of subgrade materials stabilized with CaO and cementitious materials, modelled using artificial neural network (ANN) and gene expression programming (GEP) has been studied here. For this purpose, a number of wet–dry cycles (WDC), calcium oxide to SAF (silica, alumina, and ferric oxide compounds in the cementitious materials) ratio (CSAFRs), ratio of maximum dry density to the optimum moisture content (DMR), confining pressure (σ3), and deviator stress (σ4) were considered input variables, and Mr was treated as the target variable. Different ANN and GEP prediction models were developed, validated, and tested using 30% of the experimental data. Additionally, they were evaluated using statistical indices, such as the slope of the regression line between experimental and predicted results and the relative error analysis. The slope of the regression line for the ANN and GEP models was observed as (0.96, 0.99, and 0.94) and (0.72, 0.72, and 0.76) for the training, validation, and test data, respectively. The parametric analysis of the ANN and GEP models showed that Mr increased with the DMR, σ3, and σ4. An increase in the number of WDCs reduced the Mr value. The sensitivity analysis showed the sequences of importance as: DMR > CSAFR > WDC > σ4 > σ3, (ANN model) and DMR > WDC > CSAFR > σ4 > σ3 (GEP model). Both the ANN and GEP models reflected close agreement between experimental and predicted results; however, the ANN model depicted superior accuracy in predicting the Mr value.