Temperature Trend Analysis and Investigation on a Case of Variability Climate

Abstract

Climate change is now evident on a global scale. In some regions, the phenomenon is especially amplified, generating different consequences for man and the environment. Sicily is one of the Mediterranean regions, the biggest in terms of area, where climatic variations produce significant effects. In this study, temperature trends on monthly time scales are examined in the time frame 1925–2015. The cluster analysis technique (Ward’s method) was used to homogenize the temperature series. The results show four statistically significant clusters, confirming the presence of climatic variability in the region. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to determine temperature trends. The non-parametric estimator Sen’s slope was used to quantify the variation of trends. The results showed the presence of statistically significant trends. A worrying and unexpected increase in temperatures was found during the winter period. This scenario was presented in three clusters, highlighting a mutation in the winter season, attributable to the climatic changes in progress rather than to territorial factors. If the trends maintain an increasing monotone character, in the coming decades there will be, in many areas of Sicily, a constant loss of fertile soil for the agricultural sector and the advancement of phenomena such as drought and desertification, to which the island is already predisposed. All of this will have serious socio-economic repercussions. Considering that a large part of the region’s economy is based on the agricultural sector, these repercussions will be followed by serious environmental implications that will negatively affect the ecological sustainability of the region.