Examining the trend of decreasing precipitation in the Mediterranean area: A case study of Sicily from 1921 to 2023.

Author:

Monforte Pietro1ORCID,Ragusa Maria Alessandra2,Imposa Sebastiano3

Affiliation:

1. University of Catania Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering: Universita degli Studi di Catania Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Architettura

2. University of Catania Department of Mathematics and Computer Science: Universita degli Studi di Catania Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica

3. University of Catania Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences-Earth Sciences Section

Abstract

Abstract

The objective of the authors is examines drought trends in Sicily over the past century. The analysis focuses on the nine provinces that comprise the region, The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to identify pluviometric deficit at different time scales, including 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. Additionally, the Mann-Kendall test is applied to check if the SPI has a significant trend, especially if it is decreasing; as the SPI decreases, the pluviometric deficit increases.The statistical approach of the study confirms that in Sicily, meteorological and hydrological droughts are becoming more frequent. In addition, a rising trend of socio-economic droughts has been identified. It is therefore necessary to target mitigation and adaptation measures on the areas most vulnerable to drought in order to safeguard the agricultural sector and, consequently, a significant part of the region's productive activities. The methods used in this work could be applied to the management of water resources and the protection of the island's agricultural and economic sectors.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

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3. Spatio-temporal assessment of agricultural drought using remote sensing and ground-based data indices in the Northern Ethiopian Highland;Alito KT;J Hydrology: Reg Stud,2024

4. Droughts prediction: a methodology based on climate seasonal forecasts;Arnone E;Water Resour Manage,2020

5. Changes in total pluviometric, rainy days and extreme events in northeastern Italy;Brunetti M;Int J Climatol,2001

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