Flood Risk Assessment Using TELEMAC-2D Models Integrated with Multi-Index Analysis in Shenzhen River Basin, China

Abstract

An urban flood simulation model based on TELEMAC-2D was constructed, and the inundation data of two measured rainstorms (7 June 2018 and 16 September 2018) were selected to validate the model. Flooding processes were simulated under 12 designed rainfall scenarios with rainfall return periods of 20, 50 and 100 years and rainfall peak coefficients of 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8, respectively. The hazard-vulnerability (H-V) method was used for urban flood risk assessment. The selected hazard factors included inundation depth, flood velocity, elevation and slope. The vulnerability factors included land use type, population density and property distribution. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to calculate the weight values of each indicator factor, and ArcGIS software was used for overlay calculation. The results of the analysis show that as the rainfall peak coefficient factor increases, the area of each risk zone increases to varying degrees. The larger the rainfall peak coefficient factor, the more serious the flooding. As the rainfall return period increases, the effect of the rainfall peak coefficient factor of the change in the area of the highest risk zone diminishes. The highest risk zone is the largest within Luohu District (LHD), accounting for 46.38%, 60.92% and 45.54% of the total highest risk area, respectively. As the return period increases, the area of the highest risk zone within Futian District (FTD) increases, but its proportion has a decreasing trend, and the proportion of the highest risk area within Longgang District (LGD) has an increasing trend. The risk zoning map can better reflect the risk distribution of the basin and provide a scientific basis for early warning of flood prevention and drainage in the Shenzhen River basin.