Analysis of China’s Coal Reduction Path under the Goal of Peak Carbon Emissions and Carbon Neutralization

Abstract

In recent years, China has proposed the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which will significantly alter its existing coal-based energy mix. Since coal is China’s primary source of energy and the largest contributor to carbon emissions, coal reduction is an important measure toward carbon neutrality. In order to guarantee the stable development of economy and society in the process of coal reduction, the path and cost of coal reduction need to be studied in depth. Based on coal use in China, this paper examines and measures the stages and costs of coal reduction. It also gives a definition for coal reduction costs for the first time, including economic cost, environment and ecology cost, and health cost, as well as proposes a framework for analyzing the “full cost, full process, and full scenario”. We measure the cost in combination with the KAYA formula, and take into account the time value of the cost. Based on the above measurement framework, we calculate the unit coal reduction cost and estimate the coal reduction cost between CNY 454.38 and 827.1 billion.