Affiliation:
1. Postgraduate Program in Environmental Physics, Institute of Physics, Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT), Cuiabá 78060-900, Brazil
2. Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT), Sinop 78550728, Brazil
Abstract
Understanding how climatic variables impact the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is essential for water resource management, especially considering potential fluctuations due to climate change. Therefore, we used the Sobol’ method to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of Penman–Monteith ETo sensitivity to the climatic variables: downward solar radiation, relative humidity, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed. The Sobol’ indices variances were estimated by Monte Carlo integration, with sample limits set to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the daily data of 33 automatic weather stations located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The results of the Sobol’ analysis indicate considerable spatiotemporal variations in the sensitivity of ETo to climatic variables and their interactions. The dominant climatic variable responsible for ETo fluctuations in Mato Grosso is incident solar radiation (53% to 93% of annual total sensitivity—Stot), which has a more significant impact in humid environments (70% to 90% of Stot), as observed in the areas of the Amazon biome in the state. Air relative humidity and wind speed have higher sensitivity indices during the dry season in the Cerrado biome (savanna) areas in Mato Grosso (20% and 30% of the Stot, respectively). Our findings show that changes in solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed are the main driving forces that impact the reference evapotranspiration.
Funder
Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Mato Grosso
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Subject
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
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