Decarbonizing Thailand’s Economy: A Proposal

Abstract

This paper proposes decarbonization pathways for Thailand based on a review of the status of renewable and fossil energies, technology evaluation and scenario studies. Results show that renewable electricity generation needs to grow at a 7.1% average annual growth rate (AAGR) between now and 2050 for the power sector to achieve net-zero by 2050. This would require it to reach 400 TWh, exceeding its technical potential. We propose a more achievable scenario of between 5% and 6% AAGR wherein renewable electricity will grow from 51 TWh to 217–291 TWh between 2020 and 2050. Gas-powered electricity will grow from 127 TWh to 185–111 TWh, requiring carbon capture and storage (CCS) to mitigate 75–45 Mtpa CO2 by 2050. For the transport sector, electric vehicles have the highest decarbonization potential, but they would add 45 TWh of electricity demand by 2050. For the industry sector, installing CCS in existing plants has the highest decarbonization potential. Overall, CCS is a key decarbonization technology and its large-scale implementation will be needed for Thailand to achieve net-zero by 2050.