The Impact of Climate Warming on Lake Surface Heat Exchange and Ice Phenology of Different Types of Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Increasing air temperature is a significant feature of climate warming, and is cause for some concern, particularly on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A lack of observations means that the impact of rising air temperatures on TP lakes has received little attention. Lake surfaces play a unique role in determining local and regional climate. This study analyzed the effect of increasing air temperature on lake surface temperature (LST), latent heat flux (LE), sensible heat flux (H), and ice phenology at Lake Nam Co and Lake Ngoring, which have mean depths of approximately 40 m and 25 m, respectively, and are in the central and eastern TP, respectively. The variables were simulated using an adjusted Fresh-water Lake (FLake) model (FLake_α_ice = 0.15). The simulated results were evaluated against in situ observations of LST, LE and H, and against LST data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2015 to 2016. The simulations show that when the air temperature increases, LST increases, and the rate of increase is greater in winter than in summer; annual LE increases; H and ice thickness decrease; ice freeze-up date is delayed; and the break-up date advances. The changes in the variables in response to the temperature increases are similar at the two lakes from August to December, but are significantly different from December to July.