MCDM-Based Wildfire Risk Assessment: A Case Study on the State of Arizona

Author:

Pishahang Mohammad1,Jovcic Stefan2ORCID,Hashemkhani Zolfani Sarfaraz3ORCID,Simic Vladimir45ORCID,Görçün Ömer Faruk6

Affiliation:

1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA

2. Faculty of Transport Engineering, University of Pardubice, Studentská 95, 532 10 Pardubice, Czech Republic

3. School of Engineering, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Larrondo 1281, Coquimbo 1780000, Chile

4. Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11010 Belgrade, Serbia

5. Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, College of Engineering, Yuan Ze University, Taoyuan City 320315, Taiwan

6. Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Economics, Administration, and Social Sciences, Kadir Has University, Fatih, Istanbul 34083, Turkey

Abstract

The increasing frequency of wildfires has posed significant challenges to communities worldwide. The effectiveness of all aspects of disaster management depends on a credible estimation of the prevailing risk. Risk, the product of a hazard’s likelihood and its potential consequences, encompasses the probability of hazard occurrence, the exposure of assets to these hazards, existing vulnerabilities that amplify the consequences, and the capacity to manage, mitigate, and recover from their consequences. This paper employs the multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework, which produces reliable results and allows for the customization of the relative importance of factors based on expert opinions. Utilizing the AROMAN algorithm, the study ranks counties in the state of Arizona according to their wildfire risk, drawing upon 25 factors categorized into expected annual loss, community resilience, and social vulnerability. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the stability of the results when model parameters are altered, reinforcing the robustness of this approach in disaster risk assessment. While the paper primarily focuses on enhancing the safety of human communities in the context of wildfires, it highlights the versatility of the methodology, which can be applied to other natural hazards and accommodate more subjective risk and safety assessments.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Safety Research,Environmental Science (miscellaneous),Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality,Building and Construction,Forestry

Reference46 articles.

1. National Interagency Fire Center (2023, September 15). Fire Information|Statistics, Available online: https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics.

2. The wildland–urban interface in the United States based on 125 million building locations;Carlson;Ecol. Appl.,2022

3. Butler, K., Butry, D., Forney, G.P., Johnsson, E.L., Link, E., Maranghides, A., and Prasad, K. (2023, September 15). Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fire Data Collection on Parcel Vulnerabilities, Available online: https://www.nist.gov/programs-projects/wildland-urban-interface-wui-fire-data-collection-parcel-vulnerabilities.

4. Statistical Models of Key Components of Wildfire Risk;Xi;Annu. Rev. Stat. Its Appl.,2019

5. Wildfire risk modeling;Oliveira;Curr. Opin. Environ. Sci. Health,2021

Cited by 3 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3