Anticipated Transport Choices in a World Featuring Autonomous Transport Options

Abstract

(1) Background: The automation of transport systems is well underway; however, it is unclear how this will affect people’s mobility choices. Changes in these choices have implications for health and the sustainability and efficiency of transport systems, making it important to understand how the advent of autonomous vehicles might affect people’s transport behaviors. The aim of the present study was to address this knowledge gap in the Australian context. (2) Methods: Respondents reported their demographic information, current transport behaviors, the perceived importance of transport-related factors, and attitudes toward autonomous vehicles. They then read a vignette describing a future scenario involving autonomous vehicles that was informed by expert stakeholders. After reading the vignette, the respondents selected those transport options that they would anticipate using in the depicted scenario. Descriptive analyses were conducted to examine changes in transport choices, while regression models were employed to identify the predictors of choices in the future scenario. (3) Results: Most respondents envisaged making greater use of active, shared, and public transport options in an autonomous future, compared to their current use of these options. The intended use of private transport options halved. The most consistent predictor for selecting a certain mode of transport was the current use of that option or its non-autonomous equivalent. (4) Conclusion: Overall, favorable changes in the envisaged use of transport were observed for the hypothetical scenario, which was characterized by improved public transport, a practical active transport infrastructure, and relatively cheap shared autonomous vehicles. If policymakers can act to realize these outcomes, the autonomation of transport is likely to lead to positive societal change.