Assessing the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Sprawl

Abstract

Background: Urban sprawl adversely effects the sustainability of urban environments by promoting private vehicle use, decreasing the viability of active/public transport, and increasing the cost of public service provision. Autonomous vehicles could change the desirability of different residential locations due to resulting changes to urban design and decreased value of travel time. Methods: Adult Australians (n = 1078) completed an online survey that included a description of a future where autonomous vehicles are widely available. The respondents reported anticipated changes in residential location in this autonomous future. Frequency analyses were conducted, and three logistic generalised linear models were run to identify factors associated with staying in the same area or moving to higher- or lower-density locations. Results: Autonomous vehicles are likely to have mixed effects on people’s desired residential locations. Most respondents (84%) elected not to move location, 11% intended to move to lower-density locations, and 6% to higher density locations. Reasons for moving included a desire for more space, the ease of travelling in urban areas, and the reduced value of travel time. Conclusion: The introduction of autonomous vehicles will need to be managed to avoid fostering increased urban sprawl and the associated negative consequences. Strategies that increase the liveability of higher density urban environments are likely to discourage urban sprawl in a future characterised by autonomous transport options.