Measuring the Evolution of Urban Resilience Based on the Exposure–Connectedness–Potential (ECP) Approach: A Case Study of Shenyang City, China

Abstract

Resilience is a new path to express and enhance urban sustainability. Cities suffer from natural shocks and human-made disturbances due to rapid urbanization and global climate change. The construction of an urban resilient developmental environment is restricted by these factors. Strengthening the comprehensive evaluation of resilience is conducive to identifying high-risk areas in cities, guiding regional risk prevention, and providing a scientific basis for differentiated strategies for urban resilience governance. For this study, taking Shenyang city as a case study, the resilience index system was constructed as an ECP (“exposure”, “connectedness”, and “potential”) framework, and the adaptive cycle model was introduced into the resilience assessment framework. This model not only comprehensively considers the relationship between exposure and potential but also helps to focus on the temporal and spatial dynamics of urban resilience. The results show that the exposed indicators have experienced three spatial evolution stages, including single-center circle expansion, multicenter clustering, and multicenter expansion. The potential index increased radially from the downtown area to the outer suburbs, and the low-value area presented a multicenter pattern. The spatial agglomeration of connectivity indicators gradually weakened. The results reflect the fact that the resilience level of the downtown area has been improved and the resilience of the outer expansion area has declined due to urban construction. The multicenter cluster pattern is conducive to the balance of resilience levels. In terms of the adaptive cycle phases of urban resilience, the first ring has gone through three phases: exploitation (r), conservation (K), and release (Ω). The second and third rings have gradually shifted from the exploitation (r) phase to the conservation (K) phase. The fourth ring has entered the exploitation (r) phase from the reorganization (ɑ) phase. The fifth ring and its surrounding areas are in the reorganization (ɑ) phase. The results provide specific spatial guidance for implementing resilient urban planning and realizing sustainable urban development.