Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Submarine Pipelines Using the Bayesian Approach-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Submarine Pipelines Using the Bayesian Approach

Published:2023-03-08 Issue:3 Volume:11 Page:580
ISSN:2077-1312
Container-title:Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
language:en
Short-container-title:JMSE

Author:

Kakaie Arman¹,Guedes Soares C.¹^ORCID,Ariffin Ahmad Kamal²,Punurai Wonsiri³^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal

2. Computational Mechanics Laboratory, Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi 43600, Malaysia

3. Civil Engineering Group, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand

Abstract

A fracture mechanics-based fatigue reliability analysis of a submarine pipeline is investigated using the Bayesian approach. The proposed framework enables the estimation of the reliability level of submarine pipelines based on limited experimental data. Bayesian updating method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters of a fracture mechanics-based fatigue model regarding different sources of uncertainties. Failure load cycle distribution and the reliability-based performance assessment of API 5L X56 submarine pipelines as a case study are estimated for three different cases. In addition, the impact of different parameters, including the stress ratio, maximum load, uncertainties of stress range and initial crack size, corrosion-enhanced factor, and also the correlation between material parameters on the reliability of the investigated submarine pipeline has been indicated through a sensitivity study. The applied approach in this study may be used for uncertainty modelling and fatigue reliability-based performance assessment of different types of submarine pipelines for maintenance and periodic inspection planning.

Funder

European Project RESET Reliability and Safety Engineering for Large Maritime Engineering Systems

Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia—FCT

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Ocean Engineering,Water Science and Technology,Civil and Structural Engineering

Link

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/3/580/pdf

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