Temporal Changes in Minimum and Maximum Temperatures at Selected Locations of Southern Africa

Author:

Mupangwa Walter1ORCID,Chipindu Lovemore2ORCID,Ncube Bongani3ORCID,Mkuhlani Siyabusa4,Nhantumbo Nascimento5ORCID,Masvaya Esther1,Ngwira Amos6,Moeletsi Mokhele7ORCID,Nyagumbo Isaiah2,Liben Feyera8

Affiliation:

1. Faculty of Erath and Environmental Sciences, Marondera University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Marondera P.O. Box 35, Zimbabwe

2. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre, Mount Pleasant, Harare P.O. Box MP 163, Zimbabwe

3. Centre for Water and Sanitation Research, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Bellville, Cape Town 7535, South Africa

4. International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) c/o ICIPE, Nairobi P.O. Box 30772-00100, Kenya

5. Divisão de Agricultura, Instituto Superior Politécnico de Manica, Campus de Matsinho, Chimoio P.O. Box 417, Mozambique

6. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Chitedze Research Station, Lilongwe P.O. Box 1096, Malawi

7. Agricultural Research Council, Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

8. Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 2003, Ethiopia

Abstract

Agriculture is threatened by ever increasing temperatures and this trend is predicted to continue for the near and distant future. The negative impact of rising temperatures on agri-food systems is also compounded by the erratic and highly variable rainfall in most parts of southern Africa. Minimum and maximum temperatures’ variability and trend analysis were undertaken using daily time series data derived from 23 meteorological stations spread across Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The modified Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sen slope models were used to assess temperature trends and their magnitudes. Temperature varied with location and minimum temperature was more variable than maximum temperature. Semi-arid regions had higher variation in minimum temperature compared to humid and coastal environments. The results showed an upward trend in minimum (0.01–0.83 °C over a 33–38 year period) and maximum (0.01–0.09 °C over a 38–57 year period) temperatures at 9 and15 locations, respectively. A downward trend in minimum temperature (0.03–0.20 °C over 38–41 years) occurred in South Africa at two locations and Dedza (Malawi), while a non-significant decline in maximum temperature (0.01 °C over 54 years) occurred at one location in coastal dry sub-humid Mozambique. The results confirm the increase in temperature over 33–79 years, and highlight the importance of including temperature when designing climate change adaption and mitigation strategies in southern Africa and similar environments.

Funder

Bill & Melinda Gates foundation

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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