Haze Risk Assessment Based on Improved PCA-MEE and ISPO-LightGBM Model

Abstract

With the economic development in China, haze risks are frequent. It is important to study the urban haze risk assessment to manage the haze disaster. The haze risk assessment indexes of 11 cities in Fenwei Plain were selected from three aspects: the sensitivity of disaster-inducing environments, haze component hazards and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, combined with regional disaster system theory. The haze hazard risk levels of 11 cities in Fenwei Plain were evaluated using the matter-element extension (MEE) model, and the indicator weights were determined by improving the principal component analysis (PCA) method using the entropy weight method, and finally, five haze hazard risk assessment models were established by improving the particle swarm optimization (IPSO) light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithm. It is used to assess the risk of affected populations, transportation damage risk, crop damage area risk, direct economic loss risk and comprehensive disaster risk before a disaster event occurs. The experimental comparison shows that the haze risk index of Xi’an city is the highest, and the full index can improve the evaluation accuracy by 4–16% compared with only the causative factor index, which indicates that the proposed PCA-MEE-ISPO-LightGBM model evaluation results are more realistic and reliable.