Study on the Spatial Differentiation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China’s Economic Resilience under Different Shocks

Abstract

Recognizing regional economic resilience and its influencing factors under different shocks is necessary to promote stable regional economic development. The article analyzes the regional economic resilience of 31 Chinese provinces under three kinds of shocks, namely, financial crisis, economic downturn, and COVID-19, in terms of the resistance of regional economies to shocks, and examines spatial distribution and main influencing factors. The results of the study found that: (1) The characteristics of regional economic resilience under different shocks are different. During the financial crisis, the strong resilient provinces are distributed in the central and western and northern regions; during the economic downturn, the strong resilient provinces are mainly distributed in the western and central regions; during COVID-19, the strong resilient provinces are mainly distributed in the western and eastern coastal regions. The economic resilience of each province shows significant “high-high” and “low-low” spatial clustering characteristics during the economic downturn and the COVID-19. (2) The main influencing factors of economic resilience in different shocks are different. In the financial crisis, the magnitude of the contribution of the influencing factor is leading industry (0.283) > related diversity (0.197) > foreign trade dependence (0.190); during the economic downturn, the magnitude of the contribution of the influencing factor is population density (0.464) > leading industry (0.427) > related diversity (0.285); the magnitude of the contribution of the impact factor during the COVID-19 was related diversity (0.282) > unrelated diversity (0.274) > leading industry (0.272). (3) In the interaction of impact factors, the strongest explanatory power is found in related diversity, unrelated diversity, and leading industries, which represent the industrial structure. Therefore, there is a need to adjust the industrial structure and improve the regional economic resilience from the shock itself.