Characterization of Model Uncertainty for the Vertical Pullout Capacity of Helical Anchors in Cohesive Soils

Abstract

This paper conducts coupled Eulerian–Lagrangian (CEL) analysis to characterize the model uncertainty of using the cylindrical shear method (CSM) to predict the pullout capacity of helical anchors in cohesive soils. The model factor M is adopted to represent the model uncertainty, which is equal to the value of measured capacity divided by estimated solution. The model factor Mcel can be considered to be a random variable with a lognormal distribution, and its mean value and coefficient of variation (COV) are 1.02 and 0.1, respectively. Correction factor η is introduced when comparing CSM and CEL, which is found to be influenced by input parameters. The dependence on input parameters is removed by performing regression analysis and the regression equation f is obtained. Substituting the regression equation f into the original CSM constitutes the modified CSM (MCSM), and the model factor of MCSM can be modeled as a random variable with a lognormal distribution, and its mean value and COV are 1.02 and 0.13, respectively. Finally, 13 filed tests are collected to compare the prediction accuracy, the results show that the prediction error range of MCSM is mostly within 15%. The present findings might be helpful for engineers and designers to estimate the pullout capacity of helical anchors in cohesive soils more confidently.