Unpredictable, Counter-Intuitive Geoclimatic and Demographic Correlations of COVID-19 Spread Rates

Abstract

We present spread parameters for first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic for USA states, and for consecutive nonoverlapping periods of 20 days for the USA and 51 countries across the globe. We studied spread rates in the USA states and 51 countries, and analyzed associations between spread rates at different periods, and with temperature, elevation, population density and age. USA first/second wave spread rates increase/decrease with population density, and are uncorrelated with temperature and median population age. Spread rates are systematically inversely proportional to those estimated 80–100 days later. Ascending/descending phases of the same wave only partially explain this. Directions of correlations with factors such as temperature and median age flip. Changes in environmental trends of the COVID-19 pandemic remain unpredictable; predictions based on classical epidemiological knowledge are highly uncertain. Negative associations between population density and spread rates, observed in independent samples and at different periods, are most surprising. We suggest that systematic negative associations between spread rates 80–100 days apart could result from confinements selecting for greater contagiousness, a potential double-edged sword effect of confinements.