Comparative Analysis of Degree of Risk between the Frequency Aspect and Probability Aspect Using Integrated Uncertainty Method Considering Work Type and Accident Type in Construction Industry

Abstract

Fatal incidents in the construction business are higher than in other industries. Previous studies concentrated on the frequency of fatal incidents based on safety management, however, the probability of fatal incidents might be more important than the frequency of fatal incidents. For instance, certain work types have low fatal incident cases but show a high probability of fatal incidents, which means they are riskier than others. The purpose of this study is to analyze the level of risk by comparing the frequency of fatal incidents and probability of fatal incidents for 27 types of work and 18 types of accidents using an uncertainty analysis. This study is carried out in five stages from the collection of data to conducting the statistical analysis. The result of the research shows the estimated rank of frequency and probability for work and accident type, respectively. For instance, ‘reinforced concrete construction work’ (66.5 fatal incidents) showed the highest frequency work type, and ‘scaffold and demolition work’ (28.65‱) showed the highest fatality rate. This research addressed the uncertainty problem using an integrated time series and estimation method to compare the degree of risk from the viewpoint of frequency and probability aspects in the construction business.