Investigation of Novel Piecewise Fractional Mathematical Model for COVID-19

Abstract

The outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, China, and spread all around the globe. For analysis of the said outbreak, mathematical formulations are important techniques that are used for the stability and predictions of infectious diseases. In the given article, a novel mathematical system of differential equations is considered under the piecewise fractional operator of Caputo and Atangana–Baleanu. The system is composed of six ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for different agents. The given model investigated the transferring chain by taking non-constant rates of transmission to satisfy the feasibility assumption of the biological environment. There are many mathematical models proposed by many scientists. The existence of a solution along with the uniqueness of a solution in the format of a piecewise Caputo operator is also developed. The numerical technique of the Newton interpolation method is developed for the piecewise subinterval approximate solution for each quantity in the sense of Caputo and Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivatives. The numerical simulation is drawn against the available data of Pakistan on three different time intervals, and fractional orders converge to the classical integer orders, which again converge to their equilibrium points. The piecewise fractional format in the form of a mathematical model is investigated for the novel COVID-19 model, showing the crossover dynamics. Stability and convergence are achieved on small fractional orders in less time as compared to classical orders.