Historical Drought Events in the Early Years of Qing Dynasty in Shanxi Based on Hydrological Reconstructions

Abstract

Droughts are serious natural disasters that adversely affect water resources, agriculture, the economy, and the environment. Reconstructing historical drought records is necessary to assess the impact of droughts and their evolution and has become a top priority to support and improve sustainable water management decisions. In this study, we used Shanxi Province as the research area, and meteorological data from the early years of Guangxu in the Qing Dynasty were reconstructed using historical rain and snow records. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is driven by the reconstruction of historical meteorological data. The study area’s monthly runoff and soil water sequence from 1875 to 1879 were simulated, and the hydrology and soil of the ancient historical period were reproduced in the absence of data. The results show the following: (1) The idea of reconstructing hydrological parameters using historical data is feasible and the VIC model can be used to study drought characteristics under specific scenarios. (2) The proportions of areas with runoff depths less than 10 mm throughout Shanxi from 1875 to 1879 were 55%, 48%, 58%, 19%, and 30%. The annual runoff depth in each region from 1875 to 1877 was less than 60 mm. The hydrological drought from 1875 to 1877 was very serious, and the area covered by the drought was relatively large. (3) The annual average soil water content of various regions was stable between 150 and 510 mm from 1875 to 1879. The soil water content had no apparent interannual variation. The area with soil water content less than 180 mm accounted for ratios as high as 31%. This research provides new ideas for ancient drought research and a scientific basis for regional drought prevention, mitigation, and water resources management, and ensures the orderly progress of agricultural production activities.