Spatiotemporal Differences, Dynamic Evolution and Trend of the Coupled Coordination Relationship between Urbanization and Food Security in China

Abstract

Scientific assessment of the coupled coordination degree between urbanization and food security (CDUFS) revealed regional differences and sources. Dynamic evolution and trends are important references for achieving a coordinated interaction between high-quality urbanization and ensuring food security. Specifically, the CDUFS was measured using prefectural panel data in China from 2000 to 2019 and the coupling coordination degree model, which revealed its spatial correlation and differentiation. On this basis, in order to examine the spatiotemporal differences and evolution of the CDUFS, the Dagum–Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation were innovatively used to analyze its regional differences and evolution distribution. The spatial Markov chain was further employed to examine the evolution trend of the CDUFS. The study found that the CDUFS showed a downward trend in fluctuation within the low coordination interval. There was a positive spatial correlation, with a more stable distribution pattern of high–high and low–low clusters. The regional differences in the CDUFS were obvious and the overall difference has expanded. The main source of regional differences among different food functional areas was inter-regional differences, followed by intra-regional differences. The regional difference between food main producing areas and food main marketing areas was the highest. The CDUFS shows a single-peak distribution; the imbalance between regions was still prominent with a left trailing phenomenon and no convergence. The CDUFS has the stability of maintaining the original state, and the probability of leapfrogging evolution is low in the short term. Finally, the geospatial effect plays an important role in the dynamic evolution of the CDUFS.