Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT

Abstract

Changes in hydrological cycles and water resources will certainly be a direct consequence of climate change, making the forecast of hydrological components essential for water resource assessment and management. This research was thus carried out to estimate water balance components and water yield under current and future climate change scenarios and trends in the Guder Catchment of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hydrological modeling was efficaciously calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 algorithm of the SWAT model. The results showed that water yield varied from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year (1986–2016). Regional climate model (RCM) data showed, under representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5), that the precipitation will decrease by up to 14.4% relative to the baseline (1986–2016) precipitation of 1228 mm/year, while the air temperature will rise under RCP 8.5 by +4.4 °C in the period from 2057 to 2086, possibly reducing the future basin water yield output, suggesting that the RCP 8.5 prediction will be warmer than RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, the total water yield from 2024 to 2086 may be reduced by 3.2 mm per year, and a significant trend was observed. Local government agencies can arrange projects to solve community water-related issues based on these findings.