Ex-Ante Analysis of Economic, Social and Environmental Impacts of Large-Scale Renewable and Nuclear Energy Targets for Global Electricity Generation by 2030

Abstract

This study assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts of renewable and nuclear energy targets for global electricity generation by 2030. It examines different regions, as they might experience different impacts depending on the structures of their economies and their local natural resources, to understand the impact of these targets on their economics and well-being of their people. These regions are: Saudi Arabia, the United States (US), China, India, Europe and Rest of World (ROW). A well-known Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), is modified and used to predict global economic shifts that would be triggered by two scenarios. The business as usual (BAU) scenario assumes that the current electricity mix remains unchanged until 2030. The Renewable and Nuclear Energy (RNE) scenario is based on the International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2016 prediction. The analysis shows that the GDP value of all regions, except India, is affected negatively. The study shows a loss of 4.45 million jobs worldwide in the RNE compared to the BAU. Finally, the implementation of planned renewable and nuclear energy slightly benefits the environment but not enough to mitigate rise in global temperature.