Identification and Prediction of Ship Maneuvering Motion Based on a Gaussian Process with Uncertainty Propagation

Abstract

Maritime transport plays a vital role in economic development. To establish a vessel scheduling model, accurate ship maneuvering models should be used to optimize the strategy and maximize the economic benefits. The use of nonparametric modeling techniques to identify ship maneuvering systems has attracted considerable attention. The Gaussian process has high precision and strong generalization ability in fitting nonlinear functions and requires less training data, which is suitable for ship dynamic model identification. Compared with other machine learning methods, the most obvious advantage of the Gaussian process is that it can provide the uncertainty of prediction. However, most studies on ship modeling and prediction do not consider the uncertainty propagation in Gaussian processes. In this paper, a moment-matching-based approach is applied to address the problem. The proposed identification scheme for ship maneuvering systems is verified by container ship simulation data and experimental data from the Workshop on Verification and Validation of Ship Maneuvering Simulation Methods (SIMMAN) database. The results indicate that the identified model is accurate and shows good generalization performance. The uncertainty of ship motion prediction is well considered based on the uncertainty propagation technology.