Estimating Sugarcane Yield in a Subtropical Climate Using Climatic Variables and Soil Water Storage

Abstract

Brazil is the largest producer of sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) in the world, and this crop’s response to climate and soil water storage is essential for optimal management and genetic/yield improvements. The objective of our study was to build a multivariate model to estimate sugarcane yield in the subtropical conditions of the northwestern Paraná region using climatic and soil water storage variables. Observed yield data was used from experiments conducted at the Experimental Station of the Sugarcane Genetic Improvement Program of the Universidade Federal do Paraná. The sugarcane varieties RB72454, RB867515, RB966928, and RB036066 were analyzed in the 1998–2006, 2008, 2018 and 2019 harvest years. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis with repeated cross-validation was developed to estimate sugarcane yield given climate and soil water storage variables for crop growth phases. The accumulated degree days in Phases I and II and soil water storage in Phase II of development significantly impacted sugarcane yield. The multiple linear regression model, with accumulated degree days and soil water storage in Phases I and II of development, successfully predicted sugarcane yield for analyzed varieties. Sugarcane production models like the one we developed can improve crop management for greater sustainability and climate change adaption in Brazil and other areas.