Decline of Late Spring and Summer Snow Cover in the Scottish Highlands from 1984 to 2022: A Landsat Time Series

Abstract

Late spring and summer snow cover, the remnants of winter and early spring snowfall, not only possess an intrinsic importance for montane flora and fauna, but also act as a sensitive indicator for climate change. The variability and potential trends in late spring and summer (snowmelt season) snow cover in mountain regions are often poorly documented. May to mid-September Landsat imagery from 1984 to 2022 was used to quantify changes in the snow-covered area of upland regions in the Scottish Highlands. There was substantial annual variability in the area of May to mid-September snow cover combined with a significant decline over the 39-year study period (p = 0.02). Long-term climate data used to show variability in May to mid-September snow cover was positively related to winter snowfall and negatively related to winter and April temperatures. The results from a long-running field survey counting the number of snow patches that survive until the following winter were used to check the veracity of the study. Further, accuracy was estimated through comparison with higher resolution Sentinel-2 imagery, giving a user and producer accuracy rate of 99.8% and 87%, respectively. Projected future warming will further diminish this scarce, valuable habitat, along with its associated plant communities, thus threatening the biodiversity and scenic value of the Scottish Highlands.